An efficient and resilient supply of critical raw materials such as copper, cobalt, and nickel is essential to ensure supply chain stability and advance energy transition goals. Although prior research has examined how fluctuations in metal markets affect the energy transition, the factors that contribute to the greatest uncertainty in metal production costs, ore extraction, and investment in waste abatement remain poorly understood. Drawing on data from 114 mining projects worldwide and employing an economic model of joint metal production, this study uses Monte Carlo simulations to assess how cost, technology, and policy factors drive fluctuations in marginal cost of metal production, ore demand, and waste management. The findings reveal that, (1) marginal costs are more sensitive to output elasticity than to waste intensities and fees, (2) ore demand is more sensitive to output elasticity, waste fees, and cost of processing, while (3) the percentage of waste managed is most sensitive to waste fees and abatement costs than production parameters. These insights provide valuable guidance for stakeholders seeking to optimize metal production while managing waste and supporting the transition to sustainable energy systems.