De-Globalization and Fragmentation
08.04.2025
Italo Colantone (Bocconi University, GREEN Research Centre, IEP, Baffi Research Centre, CESifo and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
De-globalization, fragmentation, slow-balization, globalization backlash
Institute for European Policymaking @ Bocconi University
IEP@BU Working Paper Series
Is the world de-globalizing? Is the global economy fragmenting along geopolitical lines? This article provides an overview of the available empirical evidence on de-globalization and fragmentation. This evidence does not point to a generalized phenomenon of de-globalization; it is more consistent with a process of slow-balization. At the same time, there are clear signals of geopolitical fragmentation. Against this backdrop, the article then provides: a systematic analysis of the underlying phenomena, including both structural drivers and idiosyncratic shocks; a broader reflection on the globalization backlash observed in politics already from the mid-1990s; and a discussion of the costs of de-globalization and fragmentation, both in terms of economic growth and welfare and in terms of peace and security.